NOAA's Hurricane Predictions for 2023- SST's (Sea Surface Temperatures) are a big deal in affecting the weather. We've been in a Triple Dip La Nina pattern for the past three years and with the El Nino pattern forming with warmer seas in both the mid-Pacific and lower Atlantic, there's always a bigger threat of hurricanes. The only gift that an El Nino pattern gives is a lot of wind shear going across the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. Stronger wind shear and trade winds can often disable a tropical storm or at least slow a hurricane's strength. As volatile as the US spring has been, I wouldn't be surprised if our hurricane season coming up will be just as peculiar and volatile as the past few years.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/accuweathers-2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast/1503557 />

Current projections indicate that the 2023 season will be near the historical average with 11-15 named storms. Four to eight of those named storms are expected to reach hurricane strength, with one to three of those hurricanes achieving major hurricane status. A major hurricane is one that has maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater and is rated 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

NOAA recently updated their predictions for the 2023 hurricane season. Due to the increased and abnormal warm SST's (sea surface temperatures) in the North Atlantic ocean, they believe this will increase the hurricane season storms even though we are currently in an El Nino pattern. El Nino typically reduces hurricanes due to the wind shear that's caused by El Nino pattern and usually affects a hurricane from strengthening across the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-07.pdf

An additional article on NOAA's hurricane predictions for 2023.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2023/07/06/forecasters-up-predictions-to-above-normal-hurricane-season-due-to-record-warm-sea-temperatures/

Interesting you mention SST's (Sea Surface Temperatures)! It's been in our news lately about the rising temperatures in our North Sea "being 4-5C higher than its usual temperature for this time of year." affecting ocean life! See the link below from The Independent:

---

https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/north-sea-british-antarctic-survey-scientists-meteorologists-earth-b2360361.html

Great article, Mark! Thank you for sharing and interesting to know more about what's happening in your North Atlantic sea basin. I'm so used to thinking about the lower North Atlantic that I forgot to consider the far east side of the North Atlantic where the UK, Ireland, and Scotland are. I've known that Ireland can get significant storms with high wind gales from hurricanes that make there way far north and reading your article helped me to see a larger picture of how the SST's are affecting our heated weather and the effects on marine life over a vast amount of sea territory. Sad to see the ocean life being affected by several degrees of warmer water. I can see also how the predictable food chain that has evolved can be compromised by a number of species unable to survive a long term change in temperatures. We are in another heat wave over the next few days and unlike previous heat waves that are usually on the dry side, our heat waves this summer are extremely humid and dangerous especially for people with asthma or other breathing conditions. It's almost unbearable to be outside for very long.

Adding an article for additional reading about the unusually high ocean temperatures surrounding Florida state this summer. https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/florida-ocean-temperatures-at-downright-shocking-levels/ar-AA1dGmB2 The warmth registers as a Category 3 out of 5 on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s marine heat wave scale. NOAA defines a marine heat wave as a period with persistent and unusually warm ocean temperatures, “which can have significant impacts on marine life as well as coastal communities and economies.” The agency describes Category 3 as “severe.”

Hurricane forecasters have recently upped their predictions for the season in response to the rising ocean temperatures.

The marine heat wave is also causing coral bleaching, which can leave corals vulnerable to deadly diseases. NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch has recorded an “Alert Level 1” off the coast of South Florida. That is the second-highest level, described by NOAA as “significant bleaching likely.”

Well, not good at all for anything especially marine life. Coral plays such an important role in the ocean. I have read that in some parts of the world they are trying to re-introduce corals where they have disappeared!

Agreed....there's an Eco-system balance everywhere and I hate to see marine life suffer. Interesting that scientists are trying to reintroduce corals back into the ocean. I didn't know that and it's encouraging to hear they are attempting to add coral. I hope it works.

I found this article on the NOAA website about re-introducing corals: https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/habitat-conservation/restoring-coral-reefs

Great article....and very interesting how the scientists are taking care of each area of the sea with different approaches with different purposes.