Realm Economics

    • 22 posts
    April 2, 2023 3:53 PM CDT

    A bit out of my realm!

    Interesting article but still a bit beyond me! If countries are in so much debt, how come they don't go bust like a company would, I don't get it? 

    • Moderator
    • 385 posts
    April 5, 2023 10:13 AM CDT

    I thought it was interesting too.  What surprised me was Japan is the highest debtor at 1.1 Trillion with the US.  When I look at China, my question is how much does the US owe China? This is where I think this article falls short on the whole perspective because the US has to owe China more then what China is in debt to the US?  I would have liked to see more of a balance sheet between all of the nations and of course, my answer to resolving this would be a Debt Jubilee, but that would never happen because there is far too much greed in the world.

    The US doesn't go bust because the Federal Reserve bank continues to authorize the printing of money (not backed by gold since the 1970's), which causes more inflation by the excess  circulation of dollars, and from time to time the Federal Bank has done Quantitative easing—QE for short, which hedges the inflation by causing a higher amount of circulating dollars, however one of the downsides of QE are asset bubbles. I think there comes a time where you can't keep manipulating money and in short, I think the US is in for some serious hurt very soon. 

    https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/quantitative-easing-qe/

    • Moderator
    • 385 posts
    April 7, 2023 9:20 PM CDT

    JPMorgan warns stocks are in the "Calm before the Storm".

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-kolanovic-warns-stocks-calm-213602623.html

    Are you stock trading? 

    A risk-on mood fueling this year’s equities rally is likely to falter, with headwinds from bank turbulence, an oil shock and slowing growth poised to send stocks back toward their 2022 lows, according to JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic.

     

    • Moderator
    • 385 posts
    April 7, 2023 10:04 PM CDT

    Moody's cuts outlook on U.S. banking system to negative, citing 'rapidly deteriorating operating environment".

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/14/moodys-cuts-outlook-on-us-banking-system-to-negative-citing-rapidly-deteriorating-operating-environment.html

    “We have changed to negative from stable our outlook on the US banking system to reflect the rapid deterioration in the operating environment following deposit runs at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Silvergate Bank, and Signature Bank (SNY) and the failures of SVB and SNY,” Moody’s said in a report.

    I don't think there's much doubt that challenging times are ahead.  Just a reminder Janet Yellen did say that the FDIC guaranteed exception for deposits of 250K and below were only under special circumstances.  It does not apply all banks.  Time to diversify your portfolio, isn't it?

     

    • Moderator
    • 385 posts
    April 8, 2023 9:50 AM CDT
    True Legend said: Web Diva said: Moody's cuts outlook on U.S. banking system to negative, citing 'rapidly deteriorating operating environment". https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/14/moodys-cuts-outlook-on-us-banking-system-to-negative-citing-rapidly-deteriorating-operating-environment.html There needs to be a like button :p “We have changed to negative from stable our outlook on the US banking system to reflect the rapid deterioration in the operating environment following deposit runs at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Silvergate Bank, and Signature Bank (SNY) and the failures of SVB and SNY,” Moody’s said in a report. I don't think there's much doubt that challenging times are ahead. Just a reminder Janet Yellen did say that the FDIC guaranteed exception for deposits of 250K and below were only under special circumstances. It does not apply all banks. Time to diversify your portfolio, isn't it? I don't disagree, "like" is a nice feature and frankly, I always liked the star rating system in vBulletin in the earlier versions, but vB removed the thread star rating feature and made it super blah ..... FR used to have a "like" feature with post count and a trophy icon that represented a member's "likes" when I had an advanced forum plugin installed, but the plugin had issues in stability and I had to choose between an efficient working forum experience with speed, versus, a heavy on the server plugin that constantly had errors. A dear friend of mine worked tirelessly for hours and hours to bring the forum plugin back to it's original state without the extra plugin interfering. You can "like" a post, however, by liking the post in the activity feed, just not in the direct forum. I realize that's not the same as what you are used too with a xenForo forum or vBulletin, but at least you can show your appreciation in a small way for a member's contribution, merely an alternative solution for now. This SE platform was designed as a social experience framework, with a forum option, which I added because frankly, I like forums a lot too. What I've found that I really like about this platform is the groups plugin. If you are a super organized and detailed person, you can drill down in ultra organized fashion in the groups section, whereas everything you talk about in that group section, can be categorized within the group by: updates, blogs, discussion, members, photos, polls and videos. Note also, I particularly alphabetized the tabs within the groups, same with the main navigation bar tabs too. Organized visually. An example of a group and the discussions with entries related within this group: https://www.friendsrealm.com/group/25/social-media-and-integrity A tutorial on creating a group: https://www.friendsrealm.com/blogs/1/31/tutorial-how-to-create-a-group-utilize-all-features *I've also written complete tutorials on how to use FR, because so many of my friends are used to xenForo, and are spoiled by the gamification features. I love gamification too, a lot, I just don't know how to do that without compromising the efficiency I have now? I think I will start a thread on TL's wish list as you make good points. And....this has been a totally off the topic post, hasn't it?
    • Moderator
    • 385 posts
    April 8, 2023 9:53 AM CDT

    Well, I posted above and the whole formatting was lost again.  Good Grief!

    • Moderator
    • 385 posts
    April 8, 2023 10:25 AM CDT

    I'm so sorry, very frustrating.  This post editor has some quirks to it but with what happened above in my post and yours, I'm going to take a look.  Also, in DM's, I write in nice tidy paragraphs and when I post, poof goes the paragraphs.  I use Mozilla Firefox, but I'm going to try another browser to test today.  I'll let you know if the browser makes a difference, it probably won't, but I'll try it anyway....sheesh! 

    • Moderator
    • 385 posts
    April 18, 2023 10:10 AM CDT

    Is there a worldwide run of the Bank of the United States of America?

    https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/3950467-is-there-a-worldwide-run-on-the-bank-of-the-united-states-of-america/

    This is the way that some countries are looking at the solvency of the dollar right now.

    Some fear the Biden administration is losing control of our southern border; losing control of our decaying, crime-infested big cities; creating a recession; vilifying and needlessly destroying the fossil fuel industry while pushing suspect and subsidized “green” energy alternatives; leaving tens of billions of dollars in military equipment in Afghanistan while withdrawing our troops and abandoning an ally; stepping closer to a trip-wire in the Ukraine war, which could trigger a nuclear strike; turning on Israel over ideological issues as Turkey and others call on Arab and Muslim nations to unite and crush the Jewish State; weakening our military with one “woke” edict after another; focusing on “trans” issues at the expense of failing transportation infrastructure; cheerleading the social justice warrior takeover of our colleges and universities; and weakening the dollar (the currency much of the world depends upon).

    ....and then we have the document leaks recently that exposed classified clandestine US spying operations....

    On top of those problems, our allies and certain foreign corporations now have the legitimate concern of wondering what between them and the United States will be kept private and secure, in light of the massive and reportedly deliberate leak of classified Pentagon documents. 

    I would hope congress is taking a hard look at our current economic stability to prevent the terror of bank runs and not revisit the depression era again.  People are suffering way too much as it is with the cost of inflation for what should be simple attainable goods and services such as food and power to their homes.  Come on, America, please get it together!

    Some believe these things are happening because a growing number of political and business leaders around the world now lack confidence in the United States, believing our country truly is in disarray, decline and increasingly polarized and politicized. Will such concerns accelerate a “run on the Bank of the United States” with assets being transferred to China or even Russia? 

    The petroyuan comes to mind right now.

     

     

     

    • Moderator
    • 385 posts
    August 8, 2023 4:41 PM CDT

    The Bond Market may be changing.

    Collapse of the risk-free, delusion: Implications for the 133 Trillion Bond Market

    https://www.investing.com/analysis/collapse-of-the-riskfree-delusion-implications-for-the-133-trillion-bond-200640134

    As a result, bonds in general—and Treasuries in particular—became the store-of-value asset of choice and the de facto savings account for savers and investors worldwide.

    Today, the global bond market has grown to be worth more than an estimated $133 trillion as the masses parked their savings there because conventional wisdom said it was the "safe" thing to do.

    By contrast, all the mined gold in the world is worth about $12.7 trillion, less than 10% of the bond market.

    Are you thinking about going into the bond market?  Maybe do more research after reviewing this opinion piece.

    Although most don’t realize it yet, bonds will become a graveyard for capital. They will no longer be the "go-to" savings vehicle because they will no longer be a reliable store-of-value asset.

    • Moderator
    • 385 posts
    August 22, 2023 9:48 AM CDT

    An interesting article on three investment firms, and the comparison for each with the services they offer.

    Comparing: Vanguard, Fidelity and Charles Schwab

    https://articles.smartasset.com/vanguard-vs-fidelity-vs-schwab/?utm_source=pocket&utm_campaign=poc__falc_content_firefoxnewtab&utm_content=vanfidschwab_beard

    It’s no secret that Vanguard, Fidelity and Charles Schwab could be considered three of the most popular and well-known brokerage firms. Each offers a wide range of products and services, from banking and investment products to financial advisors and financial planning services.

    *I'm not advocating for either of these firms, nor am I affiliated, just offering an article that might be useful if you are researching investment firms.

    • Moderator
    • 385 posts
    August 29, 2023 3:51 PM CDT

    Are you all paying attention to the upcoming proposed cashless society in the US? 

    Australia's transition to a cashless society is raising concerns.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-23/cashless-society-financial-exclusion-safety-privacy-concerns/102706718?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us

    And while most Australians have access to a bank account, a small percentage of the population does not.

    Often described as "unbanked", this group comprises undocumented workers and others who lack identification, such as newly arrived migrants.

    "In the absence of cash, they are going to really struggle," Dr Berg says.

    In Sweden, one of the first nations in the world to embrace a cash-free economy, concerns about financial exclusion among marginalised communities saw a backlash against the shift to cashlessness, particularly when many bank branches removed cash-handling facilities altogether.

    Many now believe Sweden went too hard too early, removing cash-handling infrastructure that is hard to replace and leaving these vulnerable groups behind.

    • Moderator
    • 385 posts
    December 16, 2023 10:38 AM CST

    Wall streets magnificent seven; businesses such as Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, Micosoft, Alphabet and Meta have out performed.

    https://www.npr.org/2023/12/13/1216457187/wall-street-magnificent-seven-apple-amazon-nvidia-tesla-microsoft-meta-alphabet?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us

    Together, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, NVIDIA, Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla are up around 70% year to date. And if you were to take them out of the S&P 500, the index would be up around 6%.

    If you are interested in stocks and the S&P performance, this article may be of interest.